Letter to M. Hopkins
- Title
- Letter to M. Hopkins
- Description
- From the folder 'ILO Conf. 1976'. Annex is missing.
- Recipient
- Hopkins, M.
- Language
- English
- Date
- 1975
- Date in document
- yes
- Formulas or calculations
- no
- Inventory number
- NL-RtEUR_TBCOR_B.1.31-4
- 286
- Storage location
- Specifiek Magazijn
- Filename
- CDM286_NL-RtEUR_TBCOR_B.1.31-4.pdf
- Provenance
- Jan Tinbergen
- Accrual Method
- donation
- Rights
-
- Revised transcript
-
en
May 1, 1975
Mr. Mike Hopkins,
BIT,
1211 Genève 22
Dear Mr. Hopkins,
Under separate cover I am sending you the paper you asked for about "Two Clubs of Rome". In this letter I want to answer your other question, namely how I arrived at my estimates regarding the portion of national income derived from manufacturing. This I took essentially from "UNRISD: Compilation of Development Indicators (for 1960), Geneva 1969, index 56. These figures refer to 1960 and I transformed everything to 1970 dollars with the aid of some data that will be available to you, I presume.
You will find that the scatter of index 56 plotted against per capita income (index 68) is rather wide and I gave particular attention to some figures I had in addition for the history of Great Britain, Italy and Sweden. These historical observations are situated well within the wide scatter. Moreover, I assumed an asymptotic value of 40 % for countries with few national resources and 37 % for countries better endowed with natural resources.
All these figures are very crude of course. I am wondering whether I should take into account Jean [Fourastié's] idea that the future manufacturing in rich countries would go down to only 10 % or less. I did not introduce this idea yet but what strikes me and strikes you probably is that I arrive at much higher future figures for the share of developing countries in world manufacturing than the 25 % chosen by UNIDO and criticized in Lima as being too high.
Any work you might yourself undertake would meet with my greatest interest.
Yours sincerely,
J. Tinbergen.
- Item sets
- Tinbergen Letters Sent
