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Title
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Letter to J.B. Jefferys
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Date
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1951
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Date in document
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yes
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Formulas or calculations
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no
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Inventory number
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NL-RtEUR_TBCOR01_016J009
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1265
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Storage location
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Specifiek Magazijn
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Filename
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CDM1265_NL-RtEUR_TBCOR01_016J009.pdf
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Provenance
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Jan Tinbergen
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Accrual Method
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donation
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Rights
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Revised transcript
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en
188
20 July 1951
Mr James B. Jefferys,
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research,
2 Dean Trench Street,
Smith Square,
Westminster, London, S.W.1.
Dear Mr Jefferys,
Thank you very much for sending me the tables IH and IK. I am glad to answer your questions by the following:
1. The figure of £234 mn for exports of consumer goods was determined directly from the trade returns. Please, find enclosed a list of the goods included (annex 1). The figures were determined year by year. On the other hand a list of goods classified as capital goods (and their raw materials) was also made, which amounted to £125 mn in 1907. These two lists together do not cover the total of exports of home products (excluding ships) of £416 mn. The remainder had to be distributed over consumer goods and investment goods. I tried to do so on the basis of a correlation analysis aiming at explaining the residual series as a sum of two parts, the one correlated with the value of exports of consumer goods (the series indicated first with the value £234 mn in 1907), and the other proportional with the value of exports of investment goods.
In this attempt I tried both the usual correlation technique and the correlation technique with absolute values. In both cases the regression co-efficient for the first series appeared to be negative. Hence I included the whole of the residual series into investment goods. From annex 1 you will see that I included coal in the exports of consumer goods. I think I excluded gold and silver bullion refined in the United Kingdom. This I cannot trace without consulting the old returns.
2. As to imports, the series of finished consumer goods was also determined directly from the trade returns. Please, find the items in annex 2.
3. As to this question I am afraid that you have hit upon an error. In fact, I used the figure of 47%, which is the average Hoffmann gives for the whole period after 1860. It should have been 42% being the figure for 1907. You will find in Hoffmann's book that for 1907 42% was consumer goods; I used 47% (not, however, 53%, as you write in your letter; this was the figure for producer goods).
Thanking you very much for your interest,
I am,
yours very sincerely,
ANNEX 1
Apparel and Slops
Bags empty
Beer and ale
Books printed
Cotton yarn
Cotton manuf.
Earthen and China ware
Haberdashery
Leather (total)
Linen and Jute yarn
Total of linen manuf.
Jute manuf.
Paper (other than Hangings)
Silk
Silk manuf.
Sugar refined other than paper
Wool, woollen and worsted yarn
Woollen and worsted manuf. (total)
Haberdashery of all sorts
Spirits
Tobacco
Yarn Alpaca etc.
Wool Foreign dressed a.s.o.
Coal etc.
ANNEX 2
Bacon and Hams
Beef (fresh and salted)
Butter and Margarine
Cheese
Coffee
Eggs
Fish
Fruit (currants, oranges, lemons and raisins)
Lard
Rice
Spirits
Sugar
Tea
Tobacco
Wine
Mutton fresh
Cotton Manuf.
Leather gloves
Silk Manuf. (-broadstuffs)
Woollen Manuf. (1/3 tot 1881)
Lace and articles thereof
Musical instruments
Toys and games
Artificial flowers
Apples raw
Bananas fresh
Fruit fresh (+ Grapes, Pears, Plums)
Manufactures of skins
Paper printed and unprinted
Clocks and watches
China, Porcelain Earthenware, Glass
Pork
Poultry, Game, Rabbits
Potatoes
Milk condensed
Onions raw
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annexCount
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2
