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"12 July

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TAOS

Professor Erik X^riidEt»«n^
Konjunkturinstitutet,
Storkyrkobrinken k»
Stockholm C
Dear Lundberg,
Thaiüc you for youï'S of July 8. I ara glad to leai^n that
the University of i^insterdam has invited you for a short visit
and it goes without saying that you will be very virelcorae at the
Central Planning Bureau, It iaay be that I ani absent between
October 1 and April 1, but there always will be present plenty
of people who are willing to show you our method of working. Of
course it would be all the more attractive for me if your visit
could take place wiiile I am present, but that I should leave first
of all to you.
It is also very interesting to know that in S\?eden
evidently the sarae -luestion is under investigation as we, just
a couple of months ago, provisionally finished, I am sending
you under separate cover vrtiatever material we have on this topic
of general old age insurance. Essentially 2 sets of docxiirients
may be of interest to you: on the one hand we tried to estimate
the short-term influence of the proposed scheme. On the other
hand v^e made an attempt to estimate this country*s economic future
til 1970. But v/e did not especially investigate the long-term
consequences of corripulsory old age insurance. Our reasoning was
that in the long run the increase in insurance premiuras connected
with the scheme will be compensated for by sraaller wage increases
than would otherv/ise have been possible. The assurnption made
evidently is that the total of wages and preraiujns is determined
by the market forces at work on the labour market. It would be
interesting to have your opinion on this part of tiie work, I
have to apologize that only part of the docoiaents are in English,
but I hope that you have the same experience with Dutch as I have
with Swedish: the two languages are sufficiently similar to understand quite abit of tables and siiaple texts. Anyhow I will be
glad to give further clarifications when needed.
With best personal wishes»
yours very sincerely.

(J, Tinbergen)

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