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July 28, 1952
'1u^
Professoi'A.E.G. ROBINSON,
The Marshall Library,
Downing S t r e e t ,
Cambridge

My dear Robinson,
Please, find enclosed and s o m e ^ a t belated
my review of Dr Wagemann's book, for which I do not even
claim 800 words!
With a l l best wishes
yours as ever

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T H E ROYAL ECONOMIC SOCIETY

E . A. G. ROBINSON
T H E MARSHALL

T H E ECONOMIC

JOURNAL

LIBRARY
R . F . HAKROD

Joint Editors

DOWNING S T R E E T
E . A. G. ROBINSON
CAMBRIDGE

26.

2..

^^'

Dear Professor Tinbergen,
I am sending you herewith the review copy of
the following book, which you have kindly promised
to review for the Economic Journal.
The review will probably be required for the
SepteiTJber

issue of the journal. I should be

very grateful if I might receive your manuscript by

1st j-une.
Owing to the great pressure on the space of
k. the Journal it is necessary to restrict somewhat the
'
dS'

t^o) length of reviews.

I should be glad therefore if you

could limit yourself to about

S'CrO - /o~cf-o

words.

Yours sinceiffeiv,

"Narrenspiegel Der Statistik - Die Umrisse
eines statistischen Weltblldes"
by ERNST WAGEMAKN.

ERNST WAGEMNN, Narrensplegel der Statlstlk, Die ümrisse
eines statlstlschen Weltblldes, 3rd revised
edition, A. Francke, A.Q.Verlag, Berne, 19 50}
Pp 253, 35 diagr.
Professor Wagemann undertook to write this book in
order to restrict the influence of the well-known dictum
that statistics represents the v/orse type of lies. He
wanted to show that there is a rigorous system of statistical
sins and hence a possibility to avoid them. He succeeded
in supplying us with an amusing collection of errors taken
from all classes of subjects where statistical methods have
been used, though primarily from the economic field. He
placed them in the framework of a systematic treatment, of
which alternatively solemn scientific expressions and
Interesting and well-chosen every-day observations form
the composing elements. The author did not want to include
in his treatment the realm of mathematical statistics; It
is qualitative rather than quantitative philosophy which
he offers, even is the subject is figure».
Reminding the reader of the census effectuated by
King David, which was considered a heavy sin, the author
suggests that much of the aversion, even today, of statistics
may be explained by the original uses made of themi military
and fiscal. Mankind had to go a long way before she mastered
the realm of figures, he adds. This is Illustrated with the
way in which certain primitive peoples formed their counting
techniques. In his systematic treatment, professor Wagemann
makes a sharp distinction betvreen "the mathematical and the
empirical figure, corresponding, respectively,with a
promise of truth and one of probability only". His book Is
subdivided in three main chapters, about (1) the art and
the difficulty of counting, (11) ways and deadlocks of
statistical comparison, and (iil) methods and errors in
estimation. In a final chapter he develops a "statistical
view of the world".
In his first chapter he deals, among many other topics,
with the difficulties of a correct definition and delimitation of statistical populations and of the shifts in concepts that may slip in during the analysis; with the
techniques of summation and averaging and with the computation of dispersions.
In the second chapter, it is statistical comparison
that is discussed, with its technical expressions: statistical
series. Index numbers and correlation coefficients. It is
primarily here that he offers a systematic survey of possible
errors (p,108) with a large number of examples. The wellknown difficulties of unweighted index-numbers that may
show a rise both forward and backward are discussed extensively, as v/ell as, e.g., the possibility that the two

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subgroups of a statistical population may both show a rising mean
with the general average falling, etc*
I n the t h i r d chapter Dr Wageraann o f f e r s a system of
e s t i m a t i o n methods, i n the following way:
Estimation of a total from a partial population:"representation"
«
»» a partial from a total
"
:"inclusion"
"

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from one or more populations of
the same type as the population
to be estimated

:"generalisation"

from a population of a different
type

:"substitution",
where the latter two are subdivided in further methods of
estimation. He rightly emphasises the growing importance of
estimates in the practice of statistical applications and
contributes much to their understanding. Of each of the types
of estimation he distinguishes a correct and an erroneous
application, taken from such different angles as marriages
of German colonists, submarines, public-opinion samples, Germany's
capacity to pay, consumption of fats and alcoholic beverages,
demographic forecasts, etc.
The book i s an elementary one, w r i t t e n for the persuasion
of c r i t i c s of s t a t i s t i c a l irf^thods as well as for the t r a i n i n g
of s t a t i s t i c i a n s * I t d e r i v e s i t s value before a l l from the very
r i c h experience of i t s author, from h i s v i v i d s t y l e and h i s
refreshing view on many aspects of human l i f e .
J . Tinbergen.

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