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PROP. DR J. TINBERGEN

THE HAGUE, 20 August 1954
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Professor Oakar Morgenstern,
152, Westcott Road,
Princeton New Jersey
USA

Dear Morgenstern,
Thank you very midh for ««nding me your new
hook on Economic Activity Analysis which will he carefully studied by iny collaborators,who at this moment
are engaged in detail planning for the Netherlands and
already used similar techniques. Also in the oass of
macro-economic policy problems in a linear model with
boundary conditions activity analysis has proved to be
useful, and some of my colleagues here probably will
submit for publication in the future some results
of their work.
I also gladly remember the visit I paid to
Mrs Morgenstexm, yourself and your little son. It was a
very pleasant day for me.
This time I am writing to you about a^te an
other subject, Vhen reading about some of the problems
of the control of atomic weapons and weapons generally,
and when hearing about them I several times wondered
whether not the methods of modern logistics coxild also
be applied to find out whether there may be solutions to
some of these very urgent problems. My fortmilation is
necessarily vagus and defective, but let me try to make
my position at least a little bit clearer.
In a recent talk which I heard about the subject
the speaker, of course, mentioned the great difficulty
which the existence of distrust between the two big
powers, US and BÜ, aau ses t> the finding of a sohSHMl
for control. Por obvious reasons In addition the SÜ wants
control of atomic weapons only !i*iereas the US wants
control of all weapons. Questions of the following kind
come up: Is the elemsib of distrust decisive for the nonexistence of a solution or would a very well thoug^it out
technico-diiridical analysis even In this case lead to
a solution ? More generally speaking, I am thinking of
the type of analysis which e.g. Arrow presented when
dealing with the problem of social welfare functions.
My (iuestion to you is whether the US Government which
evidently spends quite some money for research projects
in connection with defence also has tried to get the cooperation of the best experts in analyzing the diplomatic
side and the jxjridical side generally of the world conrflict ? I do not myself fesl able to engage very much
in this type of research, but I am under the impression
that the rigorous lÖMögtot of analysis vdiich I have In
mind might disclose possibilities and at the same tlras
iniossibilities of which we are not yet aware. Sometimes

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°^£}?^^i diplomacy gives the impression of using g.uite
?u "x,°^ anticLuated thinijv^; but I cannot really prove
the charge. The problems involved seem so vital that even
the throwing away of a few millions of dollars would of
course not count. My curiosity is vriiether you# peo-oie,
?u^".?J^^®''®''* functions have contacts with the hiphest
authorities in the US Government, are confident that'they
Ï? ?^ S ^fSt experts at their disposal not only in the
field of atomic energy itself and v/arfare itself, but
also in the field I indicated. When being in Priiceton
T f \^^ V ^^ï.f- I^!"^* ^'^ y°^ colleague Kennan, and
I would have liked to submit this ciuestion, among other
thlnps, also to him. I do not know if you L v e anv
contact with him and what his interest in modem logistics
would be, but I do think that the question is extremely
important, and I would very much appreciate anv news vou
could tell me about it. Apart from this I would of course
appreciate also very much having your opinion about what
I said in this letter.
With many thanks beforehand and my best ref^ards
to Mrs Morgenstern and yourself,
->•«.«.»
yoiirs very sincerely.

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