extracted text

May 1, 1975
Ifr. Mike Hopkins,
BIT,
1211 GeneYC 22

Dear Mr. Hopkins,
Under separate cover I am sending you the paper you asked for about "Two
Clubs of Eoae", In this letter I vjant to answer your other question, namely
how I arrived at my estimates regarding the portion of national income
derived from manufacturing. This I took essentially from "UIIRI3D: Compilation
of Devolopnent Indicators (for i960), Geneva 1969, index 56, These figures
refer to i960 and I transformed everything to 1970 dollars with the aid of
some data that will be available to you, I presume.
You will find that the scatter of index 56 plotted against per capita income
(index 68) is rather wide and I gave parbicular attention to some figures I
had in addition for the historjr of freat Britain, Italy and Sweden. These
historical observations are situated sell within tho wide eoatfcor. Ifbreover,
I assumed an asymptotic value of 40 r^ for countries with few national resources
and 57 '/ for countries bettor endowed with natural resources.
All these figures are very crude of course. I am wondering whether I should
take into account Jean Pourasticr'c idea that the future uaniifactracing in
rich countries would go down to only 10 '/ or less, I did not introduce this
idea yet but what strikes me and strikes you probably is that I arrive at
much higher i\iturc figures for tho cJiarv- of doveloping countries xn world
manufactxiring than the 25 /- chosen byÏÏNIIX)and critiaaéod in Lina as
being too high.
Any work you Eight yourself undertake would meet with ray greatest intorost.

Yours sincerely,

J. Tinbergen,

99KiR

«TBR

'^rr'T^Xrr'.
r'^J/T/'i

s«-

• ^C'-i'i

.ïw ^wr

"Sl*ï5t "tfr

li-ÏSftffj