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Professor Julius Kirsch,
52, Wall Street,
New York (N.Y.)
Dear Professor Hirsch,
I quite agree with the opinion expressed in your
letter of October 3. I am glad to be able to send you
a small article of Derksen and mine where we investigated
the significance of the former Netherlands East Indies
for the Netherlands. The hypothesis made in this paper
is that all ties w'th the Indies would at once have been
cut off and the consequences are Investigated. The
present situation is not even as bad as that hypothesis,
A good deal of our current trade and shipping is still
going on. Fo the influence must be less severe than is
often been thought. Of coursf>, the difficulties are great
in two sectors: first, as to the employment possibilities
of civil servants and similar experts in Indonesia, and,
second, as to the capital investm.ent made there. It is
natural that our bankers should be concerned about this,
but they certainly exaggerate its significance for the
Dutch economy as a whole. This is well illustrated by a
little inquiry I made at the time I wrote this article.
I asked a number of well-informed Dutch people at what
figure they would estimate the loss expressed as a
percentage of national income. All the estimates given
were well above our results and ranged from 25 to ^-0^ ,
whereas we found figures between 11 and 20^. My impressionwas that there was a great deal of confusion on the
significance of Indonesia for our national income and
its significance for our balance of payments. The latter,
of course, is large and this is why we certainly have
to re-orientate our production into the direction of
larger material exports.
Yours very sincerely.

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