extracted text

20 J u l y 1951

Mr James B. .^Qi'ferys,
The National institute of
Fconoraic and Social.Research,
,2 Dean Trench Strf^et»
Smith Square,
ïi/estmlnster, London, S.W.I.
Dear Mr Jefferys,
^hank .you very much for,sending ne the table?,TH and IK. l a
glad to'answer. yourquGstifflrg by the! föllöwings ,
1. the figure óf'£23^ mh, for exports of'oonsum.èr. goods w^s deterinine.d directly
from the trade returns. Please, find enclosed a list óf,the goods included
(annex 1 ) . The figures were determined yeai» by year. On the pi-'-'" '••^and a list
of goods classified as capital goods (and their ra\»r materials.
also made,
which amounted. tcj£12^ an ln„ 1907. These two lists together do not cover the
total of exports of höfi§*^'^s5èluding shlps)'of £k^6 mh. The remalrsc'er had to
be distributed over consuraer goods and Investment goods. I tried tb do so on
the basis of a correlation analysis aim.ing at explaining the residual series
a sum óf two parts, the one correlated with the value of exports of
nsumer goods (the series Indicated first with the value £23^ mn in 190?)^
and the other proportional wi.th the value of exports of investment goods.

«

In this attempt I tried both the usual correlation technique and the corfi*
relation technique with absolute values. In both cases the regression
co-efriclent for the first series appeared to be negative. HenCe I includ^^..
the whole of tlie residual series Into InvastTiient goods. From annexj i||u
will see that I included coal In the exports of consumer goods. I ^iiW I
excluded gold and silver bullion refined In the United rvingdom. • -'•" -•cannot trac*^ v-r-h-hout consulting the old returns.
2. As to Imports, the series of finished consumer goods was also '^'-'---•^^.InQd
directly fro^- ^"•^<'' trade returns. Blease, find the Iteras In anr,'
.';
3. As to this question I am afraid that you have hit upon an^error. In fact,
T used the figure of ^7%, which Is the average Hoffmann gives for_^the whole
oerlod after 19^0. It should have been>2^ being the figure torJ907,
Yo\x
will find 1 " -"mann's book that for 1907 ^ 2 ^ was consumer goodsi I used
k7% (not,ho,.^._- , 5^^, nc; you wrlto In your letter; this was thf figure
for producer: goods).
; ; ;-;
"l
Thank-ini?' you very muóh for your interest,
I am,
yours very sihcerely,

4NNSX 1

Ipparel and Slops
gs empty
•beer and a l e
Books printed
Cotton yaaan
Clot ton raanuf •
iiiarthen and China ware
Hiaberdashery
LiOather ( t o t a l )
^iiinen and Jute yarn
Cotal of l i n e n manuf.
Jute maiiuf*
ï?aper (other than Hangings)
Silk
Bilk manuf•
yVoollen and worsted cianuf.(total)
Haberdashery of all sorts
Spirits
xobacco
Yarn Alpaca etc.
Wool ï'oreign dresse»^ Coal etc.

4l«EX 2

Bacon and ^ams
Beef (freslï and s a l t e d )
Butter and Margarine
Cheese
Coffee
Sggs
Fish
Fruit (curramts, orgnges,**
lemons and raisins)
Lard
Rice
Spirits
3-ugar
Tea
fobacco
Wine

Mutton fresh
Cotton itenuf•
Leather gloves
Silk TiSanuf.(-broadstuffs)
fodlen Manuf. ( i / J t o t I88I)
Lace and a r t i c l e s thereof
Musical instruments
Toys and gsmes
A r t i f i c i a l flowers
Apples raw
Bananas fresh
F r u i t fresh
(+ Grapes, P e a r s , Plums)
Manufactures of skins
Paipef printed and unprinted
Cfccks and watches
Chine, Porcelain Barthenware, Glads
Pork
P o u l t r y , Game J Rabbits
Potatoes
Milk condensed
Onions raw